Israel and Iran. Are we heading to World War 3?

June 13, 2025

After Israel’s June 13 Strikes on Iran: What Comes Next?

I asked chatGPT's Advanced Reasoning function to do some web research on this topic. Here is what it shares.

A pre-dawn wave of more than 200 Israeli jets hammered Iran’s Natanz enrichment halls, command bunkers near Tehran, and IRGC missile batteries in what Tel Aviv calls “Operation Rising Lion.” The raid killed several senior commanders and at least two nuclear scientists, while leaving Fordow’s deeply buried centrifuge halls intact. Iran answered within hours with swarms of drones and cruise missiles that were largely intercepted over Israel but signalled Tehran’s intent to strike back again. businessinsider.comreuters.comaljazeera.com

Why this matters

First direct Israel–Iran air war — previous clashes were fought through proxies in Syria, Lebanon and the Gulf.
Nuclear red-lines — a hit on Natanz raises fears that Iran may accelerate toward weapons-grade enrichment.
Global oil chokepoints — any fight that spreads to the Strait of Hormuz endangers the 30 % of world seaborne crude that passes through daily. cbsnews.combarrons.com

The likely play-by-play

Time window	What to watch	Risk level
Next 72 hours	• Iran’s first overt riposte: medium-range missiles on Israeli bases or offshore gas rigs. • Follow-on Israeli raids on IRGC radar and proxy supply hubs in Syria or Iraq. • Emergency UN Security Council session; U.S.–Oman back-channel diplomacy.	High for regional escalation
Next 2–12 weeks	• Hezbollah rocket salvos; Houthis strike Red Sea shipping; Iraqi militias shell U.S. positions. • Israeli cyber-ops on Iranian power grid; Iranian cyber probes of Israeli ports and fintech. • Oil spiking toward $120 if tankers are harassed.	Medium–High
Rest of 2025	Scenario A (≈55 %) Managed escalation: sporadic strikes, quiet nuclear talks freeze enrichment ≤20 %. Scenario B (≈30 %) Regional war: Hezbollah, Gulf Arab missiles, U.S. air-defence umbrella widens. Scenario C (<10 %) Nuclear threshold crisis: evidence of an Iranian dash or Israeli nuclear alert.	Low for world-war scale

Could this spiral into “World War 3”?

Great-power calculus – Washington has surged air-defence assets to the Med but insists its aim is containment, not regime change; Moscow is bogged down in Ukraine; Beijing is pushing a return to JCPOA-style talks. None shows appetite for a direct fight. washingtonpost.com
Alliance red-lines – NATO says an Iranian strike on alliance territory would trigger consultations, yet labels a nuclear exchange “not close.” cbsnews.com
Nuclear reality check – Israel’s undeclared arsenal remains a last-resort deterrent. Iran, though enriching to 60 %, would still need months to weaponise; intelligence services see no sign of an immediate dash. reuters.com

Bottom line: A global conflict is improbable unless a mass-casualty strike drags U.S. or NATO forces directly into combat. The most credible outlook is a volatile but contained regional confrontation.

Economic ripple effects

Oil & gas – Brent* jumped 8 % on the news; analysts warn that missile fire near Iran’s Kharg Island export hub or a partial Hormuz closure could push prices above $120. barrons.com
Shipping & insurance – Red Sea premiums surged after Houthi statements; Lloyd’s underwriters have added a new “Hormuz clause.”
Global markets – Risk-off sentiment boosted gold and U.S. Treasuries; energy-heavy equities (Exxon, Chevron) gained modestly.

Five escalation indicators to track

Target choice in Iran’s next strike – civilian vs. purely military.
Israeli rhetoric – phrases like “war aims achieved” suggest a pause; “long war” implies more rounds.
U.S. deployments – a second carrier group or Patriot batteries in the Gulf = higher concern.
Oil prices > $130 or tanker insurance cancellations – sign of real Hormuz disruption.
UN votes – watch if Russia/China veto tougher sanctions or allow a cease-fire text.

What This Means for You

The Israel–Iran conflict is serious, but despite the alarming headlines, we are not on the edge of World War 3. This is shaping up to be a volatile regional conflict—dangerous, yes, but likely to be contained.

Here’s how to stay grounded and informed:

Follow reliable sources. Prioritize updates from international agencies and respected analysts, not sensational social media clips.
Watch for key indicators. If you hear about strikes on civilians, Iranian enrichment crossing 90%, or U.S. forces taking casualties—those are real red flags.
Understand the stakes. Energy prices, global shipping, and regional stability are all in play—but a worldwide conflict would require much broader involvement than we’re seeing so far.
Don’t panic—but don’t tune out. In a connected world, regional wars can have ripple effects. Being informed is your best defense against fear-driven decisions.

The coming days will likely bring headlines filled with tension and uncertainty. But most experts agree: this is a dangerous moment—not the end of the world. Stay informed. Stay calm. Stay critical.

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* Brent refers to Brent crude oil, one of the two major global benchmarks used to price oil. The other main benchmark is West Texas Intermediate (WTI).

Here’s a quick breakdown:

Brent crude comes from oil fields in the North Sea (near the UK and Norway).
It’s used as the global pricing standard for about two-thirds of the world’s oil, especially oil exported from Europe, Africa, and the Middle East.
When people say "oil prices jumped", they’re often referring to Brent as the reference point.

So when we say “Brent jumped 8%”, it means the global oil market reacted strongly—likely due to fear of supply disruptions from the Israel–Iran conflict, especially in the Persian Gulf. This kind of price movement can affect gas prices, inflation, and even stock markets worldwide.